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Market Talk Archive | Market Talk - 08/03/2010 |
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Trading News and Views: 08 March 2010 Indices: European markets:Friday was a pretty good day for CAC especially, as data showed drop in US payrolls less than forecasted. Greece's austerity measures seem to be taking shape which is again giving strength to markets. Vafa Ahmadi, a fund manager at CPR Asset Management in Paris, said: "These are incontestably good numbers. It’s a very positive sign for the stock market. The jobless rate holding constant even as the labor force increases means there really is job creation.” In a joint news conference with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, Eurogroup Chancellor Angela Merkel, said: "Greece has not asked for financial aid. The euro zone is stable at the moment. And therefore this question (of aid) does not present itself. We can't predict all the scenarios what will occur over the next 10 years. But the question does not present itself today and we are working to ensure it will not in the future. I am optimistic that will be the case." US markets:Till Thursday, Greece was a worrying piece, but on Friday, many European leaders supported Greece's efforts to stabilise it's economy by increasing taxes and making cuts whereever possible. Many leaders also felt that Greece's plan is solid and the country may after all not need help from the European Union to save it. Marc Pado, market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in San Francisco, said:"We had been bracing for bad news, and what we got was much better than expected, which suggests we could potentially rebound further in March and April. This was the number people were fearing, and that we got through it like this is very positive for the long run." Dow Jones gained 122.06 points, or 1.17 percent, to end at 10,566.20. The S&P 500 index added 15.73 points, or 1.40 percent, to 1,138.70. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 34.04 points, or 1.48 percent, to 2,326.35. Asian markets:Asian stocks rose the most on Friday after positive news came in from global semiconductor sales, Indian manufacturing and US jobless claims. Nader Naeimi, an investment strategist in Sydney at AMP Capital Investors, said: "There’s been quite an abundance of leading indicators pointing to an improving employment backdrop. Jobs are key to the sustainability of the recovery.” (source: bloomberg.com). Forex/Currencies: The yen lost ground against the dollar and the euro after US payrolls fell lesser than forecasted and Greece's austerity measures gave confidence in the country's efforts to avoid bailout. Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said: "The payrolls number was big from a psychological point of view. “It’s the end of the double dip scenarios. The impact has been massive on dollar-yen, which will accelerate quite sharply.” Speculation that the Bank of Japan may take monetary easing measures to boost the yen, weakened the yen against the euro. Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London. The big battle has been this standoff between the government and the Bank of Japan, and it looks as if the BOJ has winked. People will undoubtedly think it will make the yen attractive as a funding currency.” The yen weakened to 89.41 per dollar. Japan’s currency depreciated to 121.43 versus the euro. The dollar traded at $1.3589 per euro. Commodities: Oil Trading:With positive news coming in from the US payroll department indicatng that people still hold jobs and their capacity to spend on oil will grow, in turn increasing demand for oil. Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney, said: "The market is anticipating better unemployment data in the US tonight, so that has given us a positive outlook. Our expectations and prospects are for consumption of crude oil should pick up.” Another expert, John Kilduff, partner at Round Earth Capital in New York said: "Given the outlook for persistent job growth in the coming months, this data is very supportive for energy prices." US crude for April gained $1.29 to settle at $81.50. Gold Trading:Gold ended $20 up for the week on Friday as Greece's debt crisis seemed to be well tackled. Tom Hartmann, analyst at California-based broker-dealer Altavest, said: "With everything that is going on in Europe, people are losing trust in different types of paper currencies and that should benefit gold." US gold futures for April delivery on the COMEX division of the NYMEX settled up $2.10 at $1,135.20. Bonds: (Yields move inversely to bond prices) US Bonds:Treasuries in the US lost again against the rising equities as optimism about global recovery continued with Greece's recvery confidence and lesser fall in US payroll numbers. Sean Simko, who oversees $8 billion at SEI Investments Co. in Oaks, Pennsylvania, said: "We’re getting close to the tipping point. The near-term move will be higher in yields. Once there’s more confidence from the consumer, that will help continue the growth of the economy.” (source: bloomberg.com). European Bonds:Bunds also slipped on good US payroll data and Fectory orders rose in Germany. John Davies, a fixed-income strategist at WestLB AG in London, said: "US payrolls were obviously a bit stronger than expected and the unemployment rate probably has peaked. This creates a rosier picture. It’s not surprising we’re getting a quick sell-off. And the market is growing more optimistic about Greece.”(source: bloomberg.com). The yield on the 10-year bond rose 3 basis points to 3.15 percent. (source: bloomberg.com).
Economic Calendar 08 March 2010: 06:45 am Unemployment Rate (Feb) - Switzerland: The Unemployment Rate released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Swiss lobar market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Swiss economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CHF, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish). Previous Rate: 4.5% Consensus Rate: n/a. (Medium Volatility). Recent Market Action:
(percent changes based on previous day's underlying market data, for indication only)
Sources include: Bloomberg.com , Reuters.com, Fxstreet.com, Economicnews.ca, g20.org and FT.com (Any opinions expressed in these updates do not reflect the views of the company, and as such should not be taken as trading advice.)
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