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Market Talk Archive | Market Talk - 05/03/2010 |
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Trading News and Views: 05 March 2010 Indices: European markets:European markets saw a steady-day yesterday as banks were on high note when the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. Philip Gillett, sales trader at IG Index said: "The market's focus is on job creation and unemployment in the United States. If we are start to see job creation then the market might rise a bit on expectations that the non-farm payrolls might come in positive." The UK’s FTSE 100 was flat, while Germany’s DAX decreased 0.1 percent and France’s CAC 40 decreased 0.3 percent. US markets:Better than expected Retail sales took the US markets to a high note, adding to this, fall in first-time jobless claims indicated to a stabilizing economy. Quincy Krosby, market strategist with Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey said: "The jobless claims and the retail sales were better than the market expected and we also saw some upgrades from analysts. It would suggest to me that traders, especially, are sensing that the non-farm payrolls number would not surprise to the downside tomorrow." Dow Jones up by 47.38 points to 10,444.14. The S&P 500 index was up at 1,122. Nasdaq Composite finished 11.63 points at 2,292. Asian markets:Worries about Greece and about the outlook for the global economy made investors cautious and this took the Asain shares to end up on lower note. Andrew Sullivan, a sales trader with broker MainFirst Securities in Hong Kong said: "The rally was not very strong, most probably just a little bit of short covering at the open. There are remining concerns over the Greek sovereign debt situation." (source: sharecast.com). Forex/Currencies: The dollar pared gains against the yen yesterday when a report showed that the contracts for pending sales of previously owned homes suddenly fell. On the other hand, the euro eased against the dollar ahead of a European Central Bank meeting. Meg Browne, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York said: "Pending home sales is a negative for the US. It is a sign that the housing market is losing some momentum." The dollar was still up 0.6 percent at 88.99 yen. The euro eased 0.2 percent to $1.3660. The pound stood at $1.5056 down 0.3 percent Commodities: Oil Trading:As the dollar strengthened, oil fell. A stronger dollar tends to pressure the oil because it makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive. Adding to this, weak economic data also became a reason for fall in oil prices. Tom Bentz, broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc in New York said: "The market was not responding well to the positive economic reports. Now home sales data is weighing. Once again the market is in $80/$81 range and can't sustain a rally." Crude oil futures fell 66 cents a barrel to settle at $80.21 a barrel in New York. Gold Trading:Gold fell as investors hold-back their positions due to a euro rally and currency volatility amid a Greek debt crisis. Nicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy for ETF Securities Ltd said: "A lot of what we have seen in gold is currency related, but disappointment about Greece and the strength of the dollar is pushing gold back down." Gold for April delivery down $10.20 to $1,133.10 an ounce. Bonds: (Yields move inversely to bond prices) US Bonds:Traders speculated that a US report on Payrolls might show the economy lost few jobs than excepted, this speculation took the Treasury notes to end on a lower note. Ward McCarthy, New York-based chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co. Inc said: “We’re muddling along, and we’ll continue to do so. The overriding concern is to make sure you don’t have a position that’s going to give you too much risk going into payrolls, especially when people think the data will be distorted by the snowstorms to an unknown degree.” (source: bloomberg.com). European Bonds:German bund yields were low yesterday on speculation that a report might show that the US job losses increased than expected. Sean Maloney, a fixed-income strategist at Nomura International Plc in London said: “Bonds remain remarkably well bid. An apparently more conciliatory ECB may explain part of the story. This is a longer-dated commitment than expected and should help contain pressures at the shorter end of the curve.”(source: bloomberg.com). The yield on Germany’s 10-year bund was at 3.12%. (source: bloomberg.com).
Economic Calendar 05 March 2010: 11:00 pm Factory Orders n.s.a (YoY) (Jan) - Germany: The Factory orders released by the Bundesministerium fur Wirtschaft und Technologie is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative. Previous Rate: 8.4% Consensus Rate: n/a. (Low Volatility).13:30 pm Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) - US: The nonfarm payrolls released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor is one of the most important data. The report presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Previous Rate: -20K. Consensus Rate:-30K. (High Volatility). Recent Market Action:
(percent changes based on previous day's underlying market data, for indication only)
Sources include: Bloomberg.com , Reuters.com, Fxstreet.com, Economicnews.ca, g20.org and FT.com (Any opinions expressed in these updates do not reflect the views of the company, and as such should not be taken as trading advice.)
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